Key Points:

Company Introduction: EcoCeres originates from Town Gas, a Hong Kong utility company, with significant investments from UK-based Carriage and Capital and US-based Bain Capital. It operates as an Anglo-US-Hong Kong entity producing renewable products.

Production Capacity: Currently, EcoCeres has a refinery in China producing 350,000 tons of renewable product split between HVO and SAF. Two cellulosic ethanol plants also exist in China. A second refinery under construction in Malaysia will produce 420 kt of renewable product by the second half of next year.

Market Focus: The Asian SAF market primarily targets Europe due to existing mandated demand. However, challenges arise from anti-dumping investigations into Chinese biofuels by both the UK and EU.

UK Market Potential: Despite ongoing investigations, the UK's introduction of an annual mandate increase for SAF is seen positively, making it an attractive export market for Asian producers.

Asia-Pacific Policy Landscape:

1. Singapore aims for 1% SAF use by 2026.
2. Australia announced funding for biofuel research but lacks a relevant mandate.
3. Indonesia plans to finalize a roadmap for SAF development.
4. Japan has signaled a 10% mandate by 2030.
5. New Zealand was considering mandates before recent elections.

Feedstock Supply: Tight feedstock supply is expected as higher mandates come into effect. Cover crops and crops grown on degraded land have been added to the EU’s Annex IX Part A feedstock list, applauded by the industry.

Novel Feedstocks: EcoCeres uses only waste and residue, avoiding competing food crops. They focus on cellulosic ethanol technology, converting agricultural waste into ethanol for jet fuel.

US Legislation Impact: Recent US legislation allowing corn ethanol-to-jet federal incentives may create competition but could also lead to a two-tier market where second-generation ethanol remains preferred.

Tracking and Tracing: The IEA's SAF registry initiative aims to reduce logistic costs and improve tracking, though individual country commitments may complicate global alignment.

Global Mandate Proposal: A unified global mandate for SAF could help level the playing field for airlines and reduce emissions more effectively than regional mandates.

Challenges in Asia: Keeping up with diverse national policies while expanding production capacity is challenging. Collaboration within the aviation sector and among governments is crucial.

Pricing Outlook: Despite record low prices this year, driven by increased production capacity outpacing demand, confidence remains high for rebalancing in 2025 with new mandates in Europe.

Hedging Instruments: Launching hedging instruments for SAF could stabilize prices and facilitate investment decisions, enhancing market liquidity.

Final Thoughts: SAF is considered an essential part of the solution to climate change, supporting global travel sustainability.

This summary captures the essence of the dialogue, focusing on production, market dynamics, policy implications, and future outlook for SAF in Asia and globally.